A long midseason break in sports is usually known as the silly season wherein, and as a result of the absence of real sporting news, the media works itself into a frenzy reporting on rumours and speculation about who will do what next season . Well this year, in cycling and F1, it's been the insanity season.
First off, F1.
BMW says Auf Wedersehen: Wednesday this week was a doozy. First off I found BMW had up and quit the sport. It was only slightly less shocking because Honda had done the same thing some 8 months earlier. However, I was still surprised because Honda's decision has proven to be, how shall we put this... retarded. Jenson Button is now leading the championship with a car designed and funded by Honda, but with no Honda branding. Heck, they're still running off of Honda's severance funding. They basically built a championship winning car and then made sure they got no credit for it.
12 months ago BMW looked like a strong bet for the 2009 season, such was their ascendancy in the F1 food chain. However, one lackluster season in the midst or a vicious recession has proven too much for BMW's board to withstand. If there is anything we can learn from Honda's case, its that things can change very quickly, and only those with smart minds and strong stomachs will succeed.
The Kaiser from Kerpen Returns: Then, immediately after reading about BMW's exit, I saw that one Michael Schumacher had decided 'duty called' and he must drive for the Prancing Horse in their time of need after Massa's horrific accident. Very dramatic stuff, but if there's anything the last 8 months of following cycling has taught me, its that there's nothing wrong with a 7 time champ coming back to school the new kids on the block. I'm personally stoked to see how the Schumi can do in the new world of F1. Cars have changed a lot since his retirement, but you don't win WDCs on big chins alone so I'm sure the German legend will figure things out. Furthermore, if Schumacher can bring Ferrari a win after their dismal start to 2009, it will only further his legend.
Perhaps most tantalizing however, is the prospect of some proper Lewis Hamilton vs. Michael Schumcher battles. We've never seen it before and with both teams seemingly returning to the front things should heat up between the old legend and the new prodigy.
And now to cycling.
Cutting to the chase, everything relies on Contador. The ultra talented Spaniard may have shot himself in the foot by refusing to play the game with Bruyneel and Amstrong this year, robbing himself of of the best support team and staff anyone could ask for when shooting for the Grand Tours. I was really disappointing that Alberto couldn't keep his ego in check enough to realize what he had. Sure, Lance is a huge celebrity who tends to have a black hole effect on everything and everyone around him, but that could be a boost for the Spaniard as he tries to focus on preparing for another yellow jersey. If Alberto Contador knows he can beat anyone in the world, why not keep the power of Lance on his side? Something about friends close and enemies closer.
As it turns out Conta has limited options:
Caisse D'Epargne - The Spanish team is already loaded with some serious talent, so it's going to take some new sponsorship to pay AC's tab. Santander is most often mentioned in relation to Contador, but I can hardly see a dual bank sponsorship working very well so the money isn't coming from there if he goes to Caisse. However, this is probably Spain's strongest team, so if he wants to stay local this may be the way to go. Not a bad team of support riders either, if they can get LL Sanchez, Pereiro, and Valverde all on the same page in the same playbook.
Fernando Alonso / Santander - A long shot, both because it seems to me Fernando Alonso has more important things (getting his hands on a Ferrari seat) to do than run a bike team, and because finding a legitimate tour caliber team of riders is no small task at the moment.
Katusha - This, in my mind, may make the most sense. The team is loaded monetarily, and they're still searching out their superstar. Last year the rumor mill suggested that the Russians were making a big money play for Carlos Sastre, so why wouldn't they go for Contador this year? They've even got a super strong team to help at the Tour with the likes of Pozzatto, Steegmans, and Vlad Karpets. Will Contador go for the slightly aloof Russian management though? He may have had enough of sketchy Eastern European backers after this year.
Astana - Contador has got one more year on his contract with Astana, but expect him to bug out of there as quickly as possible. RadioShack is going to suck most of the talent out of the team, leaving a shell of its former self. Add to that Alexandre Vinokourov's return and you've got a weaker team that probably won't get invited to the Tour at all.
Garmin - As much as I'd like to see Vaughters continue on his path of grooming VandeVelde and Wiggins (and perhaps Dan Martin?) into Tour contenders, Contador has to look appealing to the Boulder based team. Two seasons ago Slipstream was positioned to be the American team. Everything looked as if they'd take the mantle from Discovery and run with it, but since then we've seen the emergence of Columbia as an American team that wins almost every weekend. I can't even count the number of times Columbia has rained on Garmin's parade, either through Cavendish's unbeatable sprinting, or the Giro TTT this May. Add to that the formation of Lance Armstrong's RadioShack team, which is certain to suck as much publicity and attention as is possible, and you can see how Garmin may need some big announcements.
I'd be the first person to wish Wiggo and VdV all the luck in the world at the Tour, and no one would be happier than me if they succeeded, but from Vaughter's perspective (needing to beat Lance freaking Armstrong at the Tour) Contador is the safest bet. Conversely, Garmin should present a great choice for Contador. They've got a support staff that is the equal of any team out there, and if they can get the rest of the team on board with El Pistolero's show, we could see an unbeatable combination next year of VdV, Wiggo, D Millar, and Dave Z all helping Contodor in the mountains. This is perhaps the most serious threat to RadioShack that exists, and I imagine Contador's desires to beat them are only matched by Slipstream's.
Where will the money come from? Speculation was rife during the Giro that Herbalife was poised to jump on board if Contador left Astana, so hopefully they've kept that on ice. Either way, Contador is becoming one of the strongest brands in cycling, so if any sponsor is going to kick down, it'll be for the man who's won the last four Grand Tours he's entered.
Watch this space.